Dursun Yıldız
Director
Hydropolitics Association -Türkiye
February 3 , 2026
Abstract
Cooperation on transboundary water and climate change management in the Middle East is poised to shape the region’s trajectory. Escalating climate impacts and ongoing political instability require prompt and coordinated action.The strategies countries adopt to address water security and climate challenges will reshape state-society relations and significantly affect the region’s political stability and economic resilience.
An innovative approach to hydrodiplomacy, defined as the application of diplomatic strategies to negotiate the management of water resources, can accelerate comprehensive regional cooperation. Rather than protracted negotiations that yield zero-sum outcomes, a win-win model of hydro diplomacy—emphasizing collaborative negotiation and benefit sharing—can generate new opportunities and foster enduring cooperation among riparian states.
This article contends that Türkiye’s hydropolitical strategy, which combines innovative hydrodiplomacy with water-oil swap agreements, represents a pioneering model for the sustainable governance of transboundary water resources in the Middle East. By integrating water management with targeted regional development initiatives, Türkiye’s approach offers a practical, replicable framework that fosters mutually beneficial cooperation, attracts investment, strengthens social and political resilience, and supports long-term regional stability and economic growth amid shared climate challenges.
Keywords: Middle East, Hydrodiplomacy, Hydropolitics, Climate Change
- Introduction
Türkiye’s relations with its southern neighbors, Iraq and Syria, have frequently been disrupted by regional conflicts and the activities of terrorist organizations such as ISIS, PKK, and PYD-SDF. An exception occurred during the period of improved Türkiye -Syria relations from 2008 until the outbreak of civil unrest in Syria in 2011. Subsequently, Türkiye maintained varying degrees of engagement with both the Iraqi Central Government and the Kurdistan Regional Government in Northern Iraq, while relations with Syria were severed and only resumed after the regime change led by Ahmed Shara in December 2024. Toward the end of this period of conflict, Türkiye and Iraq signed a significant “Water Cooperation Framework Agreement” in 2024. This agreement has substantial implications for stakeholders, particularly policy-makers and investors, as it promotes regional stability and economic opportunities. By advancing sustainable water management and supporting development projects, the
framework serves the shared interests of both countries in achieving long-term geopolitical and economic benefits.
Beyond technical water management, this agreement marks the initial step toward an integrated model of water, energy, and economic cooperation. Its objectives include sustainable management of the Tigris-Euphrates basin, modernization of Iraq’s water infrastructure, and the application of Türkiye’s technical expertise to Iraqi projects. Subsequently, Türkiye’s withdrawal from the 1973 Crude Oil Pipeline Agreement on July 21, 2025 signaled the beginning of broader, multidimensional energy relations. The new draft energy agreement between Türkiye and Iraq seeks to deepen strategic collaboration, while planned regional road development further strengthens this partnership.
- Increasing Impacts of Climate Change
According to the World Weather Attribution Service, a 2-degree increase in average temperatures in the region could lead to severe droughts every 5 years in Syria and Iraq, and every 2 years in Iran. The severe drought in Syria between 2007 and 2010 forced 1.5 million people to migrate to cities. The subsequent drought of 2011-2014 increased food insecurity. Droughts and rising temperatures, which intensified again from 2019 onwards, deepened the country’s structural fragility. Various scientific studies estimate that average rainfall in the region will decrease by 10-15% by 2050. In the climate change impacts report on the Euphrates River Basin prepared by ACSAD (Arab Center for the Studies of Arid Zones and Dry Lands) and ESCWA (United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia) (4), six global climate models were used to create climate change projections for the region, with the 1995-2014 period accepted as the base period, the 2021-2040 period as the short-term period, and the 2041-2060 period as the medium-term period.
It is estimated that rainfall in the basin will decrease by up to 10% in the medium term, while evaporation will increase. According to a modeling study evaluating the impact of climate change on GDP in the Euphrates region (4), in the short term, the average decrease in GDP per capita in the Euphrates basin in Iraq is 3.4%, rising to 4.6% in the most affected regions. In the medium term, it is projected that GDP per capita may be 15.2% lower than in a scenario without climate change. It is estimated that GDP losses in the most affected regions may reach up to 20%. In the Euphrates basin in the Syrian Arab Republic, it is estimated that the average economic losses due to temperature increases will be 1.2% of GDP per capita in the short term and 6.6% of GDP per capita in the medium term (4).
The ACSAD (Arab Center for the Studies of Arid Zones and Dry Lands) and ESCWA (United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia) report predicts that if no measures are taken to address the effects of climate change, agricultural productivity will also be negatively impacted. It is projected that the gross value added (GVA, a measure of agricultural sector output) will be 3.5% to 5% lower on average in the short term. In the medium term, agricultural productivity is estimated to be 16.4% to 20.5% lower compared to a period without additional temperature increases. In the Syrian part of the Euphrates basin, average agricultural productivity is projected to be 1.5% lower in the short term and 8.2% lower in the medium term. All studies clearly show that ignoring the effects of climate change in the region and failing to cooperate on this issue could condemn the region to an unstable future.
- Multilayered Innovative Hydro Diplomacy
Water diplomacy is often defined by treaties (formal agreements between countries), negotiations (discussions to resolve conflicts or agree on shared resources), or river basin institutions (organizations that manage shared rivers and related resources). These formal processes are important, but they reflect only part of the picture. The literature emphasizes the need for water diplomacy to occur through multiple, overlapping layers. The first is international dynamics, where political relations between upstream (countries where rivers originate, i.e., source countries) and downstream (countries where rivers flow, i.e., recipient countries) countries shape expectations. The second is national priorities, where policies for infrastructure, agriculture, energy, and economic development affect basin and regional outcomes. The third is basin-level institutions, which are organizations established to manage rivers or water resources across borders, and which provide continuity and help maintain cooperation even during periods of political uncertainty. The fourth is community-level systems, which are local organizations or customary practices that manage water locally and provide the social basis for effective agreements.
This multi-layered perspective is especially relevant in regions where the climate crisis, demographic shifts, and political instability intensify pressures on transboundary resources. Each layer interacts with the others, and effective water diplomacy requires recognizing and managing these interconnections.
- A New Hydropolitical Approach to Regional Cooperation
Türkiye’s adoption of innovative hydropolitics and a multi-layered diplomatic approach in the Euphrates-Tigris basin represents a significant advancement in fostering cooperation among riparian states.
National development priorities play a critical role in shaping regional water relations as diplomatic strategies evolve. As an upstream country, Türkiye has historically affected water availability for downstream neighbors through investments in hydroelectricity, irrigation, and development. Over time, Türkiye’s approach has transitioned from a nation-centric strategy to one emphasizing benefit sharing, technical collaboration, and economic cooperation, reflecting changing regional dynamics and the imperative for sustainable management.
Recent cooperation agreements between Türkiye and Iraq exemplify this strategic shift. The two countries have established mechanisms to support major water infrastructure projects in Iraq, including the construction of water storage and diversion structures, improvements to irrigation systems, and enhanced land management. These agreements are underpinned by joint financing arrangements that reinforce long-term economic partnerships. Such developments underscore the interplay between national strategies and regional diplomacy. Timely investments, financing, and technical collaboration can function as diplomatic instruments to advance shared interests and convert political commitments into tangible outcomes. As climate change pressures intensify in the Euphrates-Tigris basin, the necessity for cooperative approaches increases, enabling countries to replace protracted, zero-sum negotiations with mutually beneficial cooperation through innovative policies.
- A Cooperation Approach for Sharing the Benefits of Water
The necessity and importance of an interconnected water-energy-food/land approach among the countries of the Euphrates-Tigris basin are clear. Negotiations in this context are inherently complex, multi-layered, and protracted. Stakeholders may also exhibit unexpected attitudes, sometimes stemming from misinterpretations, limited technical knowledge, or historical sensitivity. In these processes, an
evidence-based persuasion approach, rather than rhetoric, plays an important role in building understanding, trust, and harmony over time. Therefore, political will, effort, and unity of purpose are essential for success in these processes. Many basins around the world, like the Euphrates-Tigris basin, need cross-border water management cooperation that comprehensively addresses the interconnectedness of water, energy, food, and environmental security.
Achieving this objective requires a more flexible and innovative approach to cooperation, one that prioritizes regional development projects and the sustainable utilization of all resources, rather than adhering to a rigid, traditional focus on water allocation. The initial cooperation between Türkiye and Iraq in water and energy serves as a foundation that should be extended across the region. This approach should move beyond merely increasing water allocations to downstream countries and instead adopt a comprehensive vision that integrates the water-energy-food-environment nexus, sustainable water management, joint initiatives, water efficiency, technological collaboration, and investment in energy and related sectors.
This comprehensive vision can transform traditional water diplomacy from a narrow focus on resource sharing into a broader strategy for regional cooperation and development, encompassing resource management, energy, environmental sustainability, and climate change mitigation.
- A New Hydro Diplomacy Framework
Reports and scientific studies from the United Nations and the World Bank demonstrate that risks such as climate change, drought, desertification, and water scarcity are intensifying globally. In this context, cross-border water negotiations, which have traditionally focused on quantitative allocation, should now emphasize benefit sharing related to water, energy, food security, and economic cooperation. The Mekong River Commission’s benefit-sharing framework provides a precedent, having successfully promoted cooperative regional water management in Southeast Asia. Similarly, the Orange-Senqu River Basin agreement shows how shared resource management can produce sustainable outcomes in Southern Africa. These cases indicate that benefit-sharing frameworks can facilitate effective cooperation, suggesting that similar models could be implemented in the Middle East.
Transitioning from reactive to strategic diplomacy, especially in water management among riparian states, is essential for regions experiencing escalating pressures such as the Middle East. Strategic diplomacy should adopt a comprehensive, regionally beneficial approach to advance projects within the water-energy-food (WEF) Nexus and promote agreements that support lasting collaboration. Innovative hydrodiplomacy also requires strengthening Track Two Water Diplomacy, which links academic and policy communities. Greater interconnectivity among academic and policy networks in riparian states is vital for understanding and anticipating diverse stakeholder responses.
Each stakeholder interaction provides an opportunity to build trust, reduce asymmetries, and secure long-term cooperation. Maintaining a new diplomatic process that incorporates these considerations yields significant benefits for the region.
- Iraq-Türkiye Water Diplomacy
The management of transboundary waters in Iraq-Türkiye relations should be viewed not only as a technical issue but also as a geopolitical concern. Transboundary water management with Iraq directly affects energy, food, environmental security, socio-economic development, and social welfare within Iraq. In southern Iraq, particularly in the Basra region, reduced river flows have led to increased salinity,
decreased agricultural productivity, and heightened economic and social tensions. Despite significant challenges, water diplomacy between Iraq and Türkiye has continued and recently achieved notable progress. The declining flow regime in the Tigris-Euphrates Basin highlights the need for enhanced, multifaceted diplomatic cooperation.
Effective transboundary water management can generate socio-economic benefits that significantly enhance human security. Quantifying outcomes such as job creation through basin restoration projects or increased agricultural productivity from improved water management can strengthen the connection between water cooperation and socio-economic development. Demonstrating the potential for sustainable water management to drive economic diversification and improve livelihoods can expand public support for diplomatic initiatives and encourage stronger policy alignment across sectors.
Iraq has experienced severe droughts in recent years and has periodically requested additional water releases from Türkiye. On July 1, 2025, following a visit to Ankara by Iraqi Parliament Speaker Mahmoud Mashhadani, Türkiye commenced the release of 420 cubic meters of water per second from the Tigris River. Türkiye has consistently responded to Iraq’s requests for additional water during drought periods, illustrating the tangible outcomes of the evolving water diplomacy between the two countries.
- Conclusions
Increasing risks to water, energy, and food security in the region due to climate change will create not only environmental and local challenges but also negatively impact regional peace and stability across political, economic, and social dimensions.
The Türkiye -Iraq Water and Energy Cooperation Framework Agreement (2024) constitutes a significant milestone in advancing regional hydropolitical transformation aligned with the “oil-water cooperation” model. However, the current geopolitical environment in the region presents challenges to the rapid development of mutual trust and interdependence, as well as to the immediate realization of benefits from hydropolitical relations. The pace and effectiveness of such agreements are shaped by various regional and international factors. Differences in institutional capacity and coordination, fluctuations in oil revenues, and the effects of climate change introduce further risks and challenges. Despite these obstacles, the urgency of regional cooperation remains critical and requires prompt attention.
In summary, climate change and other geopolitical risks are intensifying in the Middle East. Therefore, countries within the Euphrates and Tigris Basin should shift from a short-term, zero-sum hydropolitical approach to one that prioritizes regional cooperation and a broader strategic vision. In the context of indirect diplomatic relations, civil society, academia, and experts are encouraged to move beyond traditional crisis analyses and adopt an innovative perspective on cooperation. Türkiye’s New Innovative Hydropolitics and Hydro Diplomacy initiative aims to enhance regional collaboration and should be thoroughly evaluated by regional stakeholders in light of climate change and increasing geopolitical risks. Efforts to promote cooperation in the Middle East must also draw on lessons from past experiences. Thus, a more innovative and forward-looking approach to sustainable transboundary water management is essential for the region.
References
[1] Yıldız D (2025) “An Innovative Approach to Water-Energy Cooperation in Türkiye-Iraq Relations” World Water Management, Diplomacy & Science News- 2025-10021. Available at https://www.academia.edu/144651425/An_Innovative_Approach_to_Water_Energy_Cooperation_in_T%C3%BCrkiye_Iraq_Relations. (Highlights Türkiye’s dual focus on water and energy as intertwined elements of diplomatic strategy.)
[2] Feyzullah Tuna Aygün 2025 “Türkiye-Irak Enerji Sektöründe Yeni Dönemin Başlangıcı: Kapsamlı İş Birliği Arayışı” 31.07.2025 https://orsam.org.tr/yayinlar/turkiye-irak-enerji-sektorunde-yeni-donemin-baslangici-kapsamli-is-birligi-arayisi/
[3] Mohammadreza Joufar,Hamidreza Mohammadi. Analysis of the crisis in the hydropolitics of the Islamic world, a case study of Iran and Turkiye’s “GAP” and “DAP” projects.Journal of Political Studies of the Islamic World.
[4] Arab Center for the Studies of Arid Zones and Dry Lands (ACSAD) and United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA). 2021. Impact of Climate Change on Shared Water Resources in the Euphrates River Basin. RICCAR Technical Report, Beirut. E/ESCWA/CL1.CCS/2021/RICCAR/TechnicalReport.11
Biography
Dursun Yıldız C.E. (MSc.) is a hydropolitics specialist and Director of the Hydropolitics Academy Association located in Ankara-Türkiye.He is a civil engineer and used to be Deputy Director at State Hydraulic Works in Türkiye; completed a hydroinformatics post graduate course at the IHE in Delft, a Technical training program in USBR-USA, and a master’s degree in Hydropolitics at the Hacettepe University-Türkiye. He has over 5 years of teaching experience in some Turkish Universities and now works as head of his own Hydro Energy & Strategy consulting company located in Ankara. He has published several international articles and 15 books. He received the Most Succesful Researcher Award on International Water Issues from Turkish Agricultural Association in 2008 and from the Central Union of Irrigation Cooperatives in 2016. He received the Professional Services Award of Excellence from İstanbul Çekmeköy Rotary Club in 2021.
He becomes a part-time lecturer at the IZTECH International Water Resources Department in In the 2020-2021 academic year
