Dursun Yıldız
Director
Hydropolitics Association
25 February 2026
The growing pressures of climate change on water resources, along with the rise of power politics, geopolitical fragmentation, and nationalism in the new world order, are elevating the geostrategic importance of water. In this context, the weight of agreements on water management between the two countries in transboundary water basins is decreasing. Agreements made in the context of international relations during the Cold War era need to be rapidly revised in light of the New Hydro-Geopolitical Order. To achieve this, it is necessary to first understand the fundamental changes in the world and to consider not only the content of the agreements but also the scale of regional cooperation among the parties involved.
Bilateral agreements focused only on equitable water sharing in transboundary basins are outdated and reflect a 20th-century approach. Given current and future global dynamics, water agreements must be regional, multilateral, and comprehensive. Driven by necessity, a complex network of over 800 treaties, 120 basin organizations, and 110 informal institutions has delivered benefits, including flood protection and food security, for people, ecosystems, and nations. Today, this cooperation faces significant threats.
The geopolitical shifts of the 21st century make traditional global water cooperation unrealistic. As countries increasingly securitize water resources in response to changing conditions, bilateral agreements based only on water sharing are no longer viable.
While more countries have signed UN transboundary water agreements since the early 21st century, their practical effectiveness is declining, as demonstrated by the Indus River case. Countries, especially those in geopolitically active transboundary basins, are increasingly securitizing their water resources. We are witnessing a shift from viewing water as a development tool to treating it as a strategic asset. This does not imply inevitable conflict, but it does require the evolution of water diplomacy.
The new geopolitical and security context requires a fundamental shift in transboundary water agreements, moving from rigid, rule-based arrangements to instruments of regional cooperation. Transboundary water agreements should extend beyond securing water flow and serve as tools for multi-sectoral regional cooperation. Agreements focused only on bilateral water sharing are ineffective. The New Hydro-Geopolitical Order should prioritize broader cooperation and a positive-sum approach among countries.
Many studies of transboundary water disputes from the Cold War and the following decade did not anticipate rapid geopolitical changes. However, accelerated developments since the early 21st century have established a New Hydro-Geopolitical Order.
A new paradigm for transboundary water agreements is needed, one that reflects current technological and geopolitical realities. This requires a fundamental shift, treating water as a tool for cooperation across energy, food, environment, and regional development through multi-state and multi-sectoral collaboration. Agreements will only succeed if they are part of a broader approach focused on reducing regional threats and sharing benefits.
