Dursun Yıldız, Director
Hydropolitics Academy Center-Türkiye
January 9 2026
1. Introduction
Water resource management has become a critical political and strategic issue in
Central Asia since the collapse of the USSR. The core of this challenge lies in the tension
between upstream countries like Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which possess abundant
water resources but lack energy, and downstream countries such as Uzbekistan,
Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan, which are rich in energy but depend on upstream
water for irrigation. This asymmetry creates both potential for conflict and a pressing
need for cooperation, setting the stage for a complex narrative of conflict and
collaboration. The ongoing challenge is coordinating the hydroelectric dams upstream
with the irrigation systems downstream, both of which were inherited from the USSR.
Drought conditions in downstream nations and the necessity for upstream
hydroelectric projects have intensified the need to explore cooperative solutions.
New hydroelectric projects in Kyrgyzstan are expected to reduce regional tensions and
promote hydropolitical cooperation. On August 12, 2025, the Kyrgyz government
announced the Kazaraman (912 MW) and Kokomeren (1305 MW) projects on the
Naryn River. These six plants will cost $6.2 billion and provide a combined capacity
of 2,217 MW. The projects are considered essential for the Zangezur Corridor, the
Middle Corridor, and China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Experts note that improved
energy infrastructure will help align transportation and energy corridors in Central
Asia.
Keywords: Central Asia,Water-Energy,Hydropolitics,Hydro Diplomacy, Energy,
Nexus,
2. Growing Regional Cooperation Around Sustainable Water Management and
Energy
With grant funding from the French Development Agency (AFD), Kazakhstan and
Uzbekistan have launched a joint initiative to revise irrigation regimes in the Syr Darya
River basin. Coordinated by the Executive Committee of the International Fund for
Saving the Aral Sea, the project aims to optimize agricultural water use and improve
environmental outcomes, according to the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation
of Kazakhstan (1).
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Talgat Momyshev, Kazakhstan’s Deputy Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation,
noted that the Aral-Syr Darya basin supplies water to over 35% of Kazakhstan’s
irrigated land, with 98% of withdrawals used for agriculture. He emphasized the
urgency of revising hydro modular zoning, which has not been updated in four
decades. “The existing zoning does not account for major changes in climate, soil
conditions, and land reclamation status over the past 40 years. A revision is essential,”
he said (1).
The Syr Darya and Amu Darya rivers are vital for irrigating agricultural land
throughout Central Asia. At a November meeting in Ashgabat, ICWC members from
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan approved new
water distribution quotas for the non-growing season from October 1, 2025, to April 1,
2026.
During the non-growing season, water is stored in reservoirs to meet irrigation needs
for the following spring and summer. For the Syr Darya River, the total withdrawal
quota for this period has been set at 4.219 billion cubic meters, allocated as follows:
• Uzbekistan: 3.347 billion m³
• Kazakhstan: 460 million m³ (via the Dustlik Canal)
• Tajikistan: 365 million m³
• Kyrgyzstan: 47 million m³
This revision effort highlights increasing regional cooperation on sustainable water
management in one of Central Asia’s most critical river basins (1).
2.1.Practical Water Cooperation Steps in the Region
In 2025, Central Asia faced a low-water year, with inflows into the Syr Darya River,
which supplies Kazakhstan’s Turkestan and Kyzylorda regions, at only 30-40% of
normal levels. (Kazakhstan Environment, 2025) On August 5, 2025, Kyrgyzstan and
Uzbekistan agreed to release about 600 million cubic meters of water to Kazakhstan
over the following two weeks to help offset shortages in the southern regions. This
timely release was crucial in preventing widespread crop failures, sparing thousands
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of hectares of farmland from severe drought impacts and thereby securing the
livelihoods of farmers dependent on these fields for their income and sustenance(12).
At the November 2025 meeting, Central Asian nations also reached consensus on
projected water inflows to the Shardara Reservoir for the upcoming non-vegetation
period (3).
Participants reviewed the 2025 irrigation season and approved the operational forecast
for the Naryn-Syr Darya reservoir cascade for the 2025-2026 non-vegetation period.
They also agreed on expected inflow volumes to the Shardara Reservoir, a critical node
in the region’s transboundary water system (3).
Nurzhan Nurzhigitov, Kazakhstan’s Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation,
stated that “Last irrigation season took place under difficult climate conditions. However,
coordinated cooperation among the ICWC member states enabled stability throughout the
vegetation period. Through such meetings, we reach common agreements and lay the
foundation for future cooperation. Together with our colleagues in Central Asia, we aim for a
fair distribution of transboundary water resources that considers the interests of all parties.”(3).
Seasonal demands for agricultural water downstream and energy upstream have
caused tensions over dam operations on transboundary rivers. Recent water-energy
swap agreements, in which upstream countries release water in summer and receive
natural gas or electricity in winter, along with joint efforts on the Kambarata 1 Dam
and other cooperative initiatives, have helped build regional trust (11). The waterenergy swap agreement signed by Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan on
September 14, 2025, is expected to further improve hydropolitical relations (8).
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2.2.Single Gas Ring to Link Regional Energy Systems
A proposal to connect the five Central Asian capitals into a unified, synchronized gas
network has generated widespread debate among regional energy experts following a
major industry forum in Tashkent. The “Central Asia Gas Ring,” introduced by Kazakh
oil and gas analyst Askar Ismailov during the Central Asia Oil & Gas Forum in early
November (2), offers several strategic advantages over upgrading bilateral pipelines.
Its integrated design enhances energy security by providing redundancy and
alternative routes in the event of disruptions. The collective development cost is likely
lower than the sum of multiple separate upgrades due to economies of scale. The
network also promises improved efficiency in managing seasonal demand
fluctuations and strengthens the region’s bargaining power through a unified energy
infrastructure.
The concept envisions physically linking the gas transportation systems of Uzbekistan,
Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan into an integrated regional
ring. This model is based on the existing Central Asian Unified Power System, which
already enables cross-border electricity coordination (2).
The system could help countries better manage seasonal demand fluctuations and
reduce the risk of widespread energy shortages. The proposed system could also
ensure more stable gas flows to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which lack significant
domestic hydrocarbon resources and frequently experience shortages.
The proposal promises greater energy security, which is essential for long-term
economic and social development. External stakeholders, including China and the
European Union, are expected to show interest in financing the project (9).
The total cost is estimated at $4 billion to $5 billion, with most funding required to
modernize aging Soviet-era pipelines and construct select new infrastructure segments
(2).
Natural gas is not only a tradable resource but also a strategic tool for regional
integration and energy security, particularly amid increasing geopolitical volatility.
4.The Key to Cooperation in the Region: Nexus
A broader regional development vision will enable win-win cooperation among
Central Asian countries. Effective cooperation requires addressing water and energy
together. Recent developments show that water management, once a source of tension,
is now fostering collaboration. The Nexus approach, which links water, energy, food,
and the environment, is gaining traction and supports both hydropolitical relations
and socio-economic stability. To implement the Nexus approach, a three-step roadmap
is recommended: integrate regional data systems for efficient information sharing,
conduct joint planning sessions to align objectives, and pursue shared financing for
joint projects. This structured method helps move from theory to practice.
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International organizations such as the World Bank, the US, and the EBRD
increasingly require the Nexus approach, further encouraging regional cooperation.
(Regional Cooperation Reduces Poverty and Builds Resilience in Central Asia, 2023)
The pursuit of water-energy cooperation in Central Asia is transforming hydropolitical
relations. Water management, once a potential source of conflict, has now become a
driving force for regional cooperation, confidence-building measures, and economic
integration. As the geopolitical importance of water increases under the pressure of
climate change in the 21st century, water-energy cooperation has become a strategic
necessity for Central Asian countries, not only for development but also for peace and
security. However, potential climate-induced hydrological uncertainties pose
significant challenges to maintaining this cooperation. In Central Asia, concepts such
as water-energy exchange, cooperation, and the development of regional energy and
water-efficiency projects are gaining acceptance (10).
While these concepts support national and regional development, financial, technical,
and political challenges remain. Securing consistent funding is difficult, especially for
countries with limited budgets. Outdated infrastructure and a shortage of skilled
workers hinder project implementation. Regional disputes and differing national
priorities also impede cooperation. Despite these obstacles, momentum for collective
water and energy solutions in Central Asia is growing. To sustain this progress,
countries should consider specific policy actions. Investments in capacity building can
develop a skilled workforce to maintain and upgrade infrastructure. Legal
harmonization across countries would facilitate smoother cooperation and project
execution. International collaboration through regional treaties can ensure shared
goals and resource allocations. Joint funding initiatives from international donors
could help alleviate financial pressures. By prioritizing these steps, countries can
develop and implement effective hydropolitics and water-energy diplomacy
strategies.
5. Geopolitical Risks in 2026
Central Asia began 2026 with relative stability, supported by improved regional
coordination and the absence of immediate interstate conflict. However, structural
pressures persist, including demographic changes, resource use, and vulnerability to
external geopolitical influences. The region is managing these risks but has not
eliminated them.
Political stability in the region has improved, but structural vulnerabilities remain.
Recent water management agreements and joint statements have reduced tensions and
fostered diplomatic trust and regional solidarity. Sustaining this progress requires
continued political commitment, as fundamental challenges in water allocation and
economic disparities persist.
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Downstream states depend on reliable water allocations for agriculture and industry.
While recent agreements have reduced immediate risks, seasonal shortages and
inadequate management remain concerns.
Central Asia’s position between major regional and international actors shapes its
geopolitical landscape. The region has traditionally managed external influence
through multi-vector foreign policies, seeking economic benefits while avoiding
formal alliances. This strategy should continue, supported by innovative
hydrodiplomacy, the Nexus approach, and a shared regional development vision. For
example, the successful collaboration on the Rogun Dam project in Tajikistan
demonstrates a balance between Chinese and EU interests, as both parties contributed
to the funding and technical expertise required, while respecting Tajikistan’s sovereign
decisions (7). Such cooperative initiatives should be encouraged as part of this multivector strategy to boost both regional integration and international trust.
6.Conclusions
Central Asia’s previous water diplomacy has not eliminated vulnerabilities to political
instability, climate shocks, or competing national interests. Although several
agreements have been signed, implementation remains insufficient. For instance, the
2013 agreement aimed at improving water distribution amongst Uzbekistan,
Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan stalled due to funding shortages and disagreements over
allocation priorities, highlighting the challenges in turning diplomatic commitments
into tangible actions. (Tynan, 2014)
Central Asian countries should avoid managing transboundary waters in isolation or
by sector. Water should be treated as a resource that, when combined with others,
supports regional and national development. Countries should view water as a tool
for cooperation within broader development initiatives.
The region’s water management paradigm must shift away from viewing water as a
matter of sovereignty. Water should be recognized as an essential resource, equitably
shared among countries. Hydrodiplomacy should align with these new objectives.
Establishing a reliable data collection and evaluation system, along with a MultiDisciplinary Water Science Center, is recommended. This center should focus on data
sharing, joint planning, notification mechanisms, and the development of the most
suitable policies for the region regarding the water-energy-food nexus. A
comprehensive data-sharing protocol should be developed, including minimum
datasets on streamflow, reservoir storage, and hydropower output. Standardizing
data formats will support practical implementation and promote transparent,
equitable resource management.
Despite some progress in interstate relations, structural challenges remain unresolved.
Water scarcity, climate variability, and unequal access to energy resources continue to
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affect relations. Seasonal agreements offer only temporary relief and do not provide
lasting solutions, leaving the potential for renewed tensions.
A shift in water management concepts is needed to prevent zero-sum negotiations and
recurring conflicts. Water disputes can have security implications. Unresolved
allocation tensions, especially in densely populated downstream agricultural areas,
risk causing instability or local conflicts.
Maintaining momentum from recent water and energy swap projects using the Nexus
approach is essential. Continued cooperation is vital for the region’s future
development and stability.
References
[1] Sergey Kwan ( 2025 )Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Launch Study to Revise
Irrigation Regimes in Syr Darya River Basin. 25 December 2025 available at
https://timesca.com/kazakhstan-and-uzbekistan-launch-study-to-revise-irrigationregimes-in-syr-darya-river-basin/
[2] Sadokat Jalolova (2025) “Central Asia Considers Single Gas Ring to Link Regional
Energy Systems” https://timesca.com/central-asia-considers-single-gas-ring-to-linkregional-energy-systems/
[3] Sadokat Jalolova (2025) “Central Asia Confirms Joint Water Plan for Shardara
Reservoir Ahead of 2025-2026 Season” 18 November 2025, available
at:https://timesca.com/central-asia-confirms-joint-water-plan-for-shardara-reservoirahead-of-2025-2026-season/
[4]Yıldız Dursun, 2011a, Orta Asya’nın Stratejik Suları. Truva Yayınları. 2011 İstanbul
[5] Yıldız Dursun, 2011b, Orta Asya’nın Saatli Bombası: Su Sorunu. Truva Yayınları.
2011 İstanbul.
[6]Yıldız Dursun, 2019 “Orta Asya’da Su (Yönetimi) Sorununun Kısa Analizi”
Avrasya Dünyası Nisan 2029 Sayı: 4
[7] Temizer, Murat 2025 “İhlas Holding, Kırgızistan’da iki hidroelektrik projesi için
yatırım anlaşması imzaladı” 11 08 2025.available
athttps://www.aa.com.tr/tr/enerjiterminali/hidroelektrik/ihlas-holding-kirgizistandaiki-hidroelektrik-projesi-icin-yatirim-anlasmasi-imzaladi/51046
[7] WB 2024 World Bank Supports Rogun Hydropower Project to Improve Access to
Affordable, Reliable, and Sustainable Electricity in Tajikistan and Central Asia. World
Bank. (December 17, 2024). https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/pressrelease/2024/12/17/world-bank-support-rogun-hydropower-project-to-improveaccess-affordable-reliable-and-sustainable-electricity-tajikistan
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[8] Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan Agree on Joint Water and Energy Measures.
The Times Of Central Asia(September 9, 2025). https://timesca.com/kazakhstankyrgyzstan-and-uzbekistan-agree-on-joint-water-and-energy-measures/
[9] EU seals €2bn hydropower deals for Central Asia energy security. DevelopmentAid.
(October 13, 2025).https://www.developmentaid.org/news-stream/post/200907/eucentral-asia-hydropower-investment-kambarata-1-global-gateway
[10] (n.d.). Central Asia Water & Energy Program (CAWEP). World Bank.
https://www.worldbank.org/en/region/eca/brief/cawep
[11] (2025). Kambarata-1 Hydropower Plant Project (HPP). World Bank.
https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/kambarata-1-hpp
[12] Central Asian Countries Agree on 2026 Water Allocations from Amu Darya and Syr
Darya. The Times Of Central Asia. (December 5, 2025). https://timesca.com/centralasian-countries-agree-on-2026-water-allocations-from-amu-darya-and-syr-darya/
Biography
Dursun Yıldız C.E. (MSc.) is a hydropolitics specialist and Director of the
Hydropolitics Academy Association located in Ankara-Türkiye.He is a civil engineer
and used to be Deputy Director at State Hydraulic Works in Türkiye; completed a
hydroinformatics post graduate course at the IHE in Delft, a Technical training
program in USBR-USA, and a master’s degree in Hydropolitics at the Hacettepe
University-Türkiye. He has over 5 years of teaching experience in some Turkish
Universities and now works as head of his own Hydro Energy & Strategy consulting
company located in Ankara. He has published several international articles and 15
books. He received the Most Succesful Researcher Award on International Water
Issues from Turkish Agricultural Association in 2008 and from the Central Union of
Irrigation Cooperatives in 2016. He received the Professional Services Award of
Excellence from İstanbul Çekmeköy Rotary Club in 2021.
He visited some Central Asian countries and published several manuscript,reports
and books on Transboundary Water Management in Central Asia.
He becomes a part-time lecturer at the IZTECH International Water Resources
Department in In the 2020-2021 academic year
January . 9 2026
